America Votes—What to Expect

Democrats appear poised to win control of the House of Representatives and possibly the Senate on Nov. 3 as Republicans labor to overcome a decades-long pattern of midterm losses by any party controlling the White House.

Voter dissatisfaction with fuel prices and the war with Iran bode well for Democrats.

Yet the X-factor in this contest is the sitting president and his ability to rally supporters to the polls.

Despite some $6 billion spent on House and Senate races, this election may be decided by the one name not on the ballot: Donald Trump.

Here’s what to know about the stakes, the issues, and the state of the race as America prepares to vote.

Midterm elections historically draw lower voter turnout, yet objective signs indicate high engagement this year.

More than 46 million Americans voted early in this election, and 14 states had exceeded their 2022 early voting totals by Oct. 29. At least 14 others were well ahead of their 2022 pace.

About three-quarters of respondents from both parties agreed that “it really matters who wins this election” in mid-October opinion polling by Pew Research.

Interactive polls also indicate high voter interest, pollster Tom Carroll told The Epoch Times.

Carroll’s company, Convos, conducts polls via text message for candidates from both parties. Using AI-generated follow-up questions, Convos engages voters in open-ended conversations that he said reveal high voter passion.

“They’re going on 30, 40, 50-text rants with our AI agent, diving deep into the frustration, telling personal stories,” Carroll said.

Democrats have dominated early voting in some key areas, according to Jeffrey Wice, a professor at New York Law School.

“Democratic early voting was outpacing Republican voting by about a two-to-one margin,” Wice told The Epoch Times, speaking of recent data from highly competitive Long Island, New York.

Carroll’s polling confirms a Democratic edge in voter interest. “We’re just seeing a lot higher percentage of Democrats engaging,” he said.

The economy (85 percent) and the cost of living (84 percent) topped voter concerns in an Oct. 15 poll by The Associated Press and the National Opinion Research Center.

Affordability was a constant complaint among voters The Epoch Times encountered at early voting sites and political rallies throughout October.

“I just can’t believe every time I go to Costco it’s like $400,” Judy Ruthier of Westlake, Ohio, told The Epoch Times.

That issue hits voters in both parties, analysts told us, and is hampering Republicans in the Midwest, where the high cost of fuel hits farmers especially hard.

“Diesel fuel is like $6 a gallon,” Stanley Kumm, a Republican voter and retired farmer from Nebraska, told The Epoch Times. “We’re harvesting, and a lot of these machines take 20 gallons an hour.”

“I think … we all kind of agree that there’s a massive cost of living problem,” Mazie Stilwell of Des Moines, Iowa, told The Epoch Times.

Healthcare and the Iran war ranked behind economic concerns, which nearly two-thirds of respondents rated as top issues in the Oct. 15 poll.

Stilwell, a Democrat, drew a clear connection between the war and the economy. “Our cost of living is directly tied to those choices, like the war in Iran,” she said.

That’s a common voter opinion, said Matthew Wilson, a political science professor at Southern Methodist University.

“Dissatisfaction over the war is principally dissatisfaction as it affects the economy,” Wilson told The Epoch Times.

Immigration was named as a top concern for 59 percent of respondents.

And while voters voice skepticism and opposition to data centers, that does not appear to be a top-line issue in this election cycle.

Trump has significantly boosted voter turnout since 2016, driving record participation in the 2018 midterm, Dusso said.

The key question is whether Trump can sustain the level of enthusiasm he has enjoyed among the base, or whether his policies and persona will work against him, experts said.

“The Democratic base despises Donald Trump with a white-hot passion and have been champing at the bit for their opportunity to show up and express their displeasure,” Wilson said.

The president campaigned relentlessly during October, holding more than two dozen rallies in at least 19 states.

Yet the economy could depress Republican voter turnout even as it motivates Democrats, said Aaron Dusso, a political science professor at Indiana University.

“When the economy is bad, it’s going to turn off the party of the president,” Dusso said. “So those voters are going to be more likely to stay home.”

Among respondents who were “extremely motivated” to vote in this election, Democrats ranked 17 percentage points ahead of Republicans according to polling by Pew Research.

The election will come down to two factors, Wice said. One is whether Trump can sustain previous levels of voter enthusiasm and whether that works for or against him. The other is local political issues that could drive turnout in swing districts.

—Lawrence Wilson

BOOKMARKS

Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Mich.) endorsed Republican Mike Rogers in the state’s U.S. Senate race, The Epoch Times’ Tom Gantert reported. Rogers is facing Democrat Abdul El-Sayed, who beat Stevens in the Michigan Democratic primary in early August.

A federal district judge on Sunday dismissed the Department of Justice’s lawsuit that sought to block certification of the election if a third-party candidate with the same name as the incumbent senator, Dan Sullivan, causes voter confusion that leads to a Democratic candidate winning the seat.

The Epoch Times’ Jack Phillips reported that U.S. District Judge Sharon Gleason ruled the Department of Justice (DOJ) doesn’t have the capacity to bring the lawsuit.

National polls and many pundits predict a sweeping loss for Republicans in the 2026 midterm elections. That would not be unheard of, as the party of the sitting president has lost congressional seats in nearly every midterm for decades. Yet polling has never fully accounted for the Trump factor. Days before the midterms, we invited Republicans and Democrats to share their hopes, struggles, and vision for the future.

Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) was hospitalized after suffering a stroke over the weekend, The Epoch Times’ Jack Phillips reported. “Yesterday afternoon, Senator Murphy started experiencing numbness in his arm while at his son’s hockey game,” Allison Herwitt, the Democratic senator’s chief of staff, said in a statement to media outlets on Nov. 1. “He was taken to a local hospital, where it was discovered he had experienced a stroke.”