Large-Scale War Shoots Up in UN’s Ranking of Perceived Global Risks

Large-scale war has rocketed up the list of perceived risks to the planet, although climate-related inaction remains the foremost concern, according to the global risk survey published by the U.N. on Sept. 15.

About 36 percent of the 1,300 respondents said they expected a large-scale war within one year, and that number rose to 76 percent when the period was extended to seven years. The report said the risk of large-scale war had shot up 16 places in the survey’s list of imminent concerns, compared with its ranking in 2024.

Although the perceived risk of large-scale war has increased the most since the last survey, it still ranks fourth among the most important overall threats, with mis- and disinformation third, geopolitical tensions second, and climate-related inaction first.

Survey respondents included government officials, nongovernmental organization members, workers in U.N. international organizations, experts, academics, and private-sector workers. Respondents assessed 28 global risks across five groups: political, technological, economic, environmental, and societal.

The U.N. said in a post on X announcing the survey that it “shows that large-scale war is now seen as the world’s greatest vulnerability.”

U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres said in his preface to the report that the global risk landscape has shifted since the first survey was published two years ago, calling the latest iteration’s conclusions sobering.

“Political risks have moved centre stage. The prospect of large-scale war is seen as far more important and far more immediate than it was two years ago,” he said.

“At the same time, the institutions expected to respond are seen as less able to act, especially in areas like artificial intelligence, where innovation is outpacing our capacity to govern it.”

AI, frontier technologies, and technology-driven power concentration, the report said, were “seen as far bigger global threats than in 2024,” and the world is “especially unprepared” to cope with them.

U.S. President Donald Trump wrote in a Sept. 14 post on Truth Social that additional guardrails on AI are unnecessary and that the government already has “tremendous CRIMINAL and REGULATORY power over these companies!”

“There is a SICK conspiracy going on against AI and Data Centers, and the only one that is happy about it is China,” Trump wrote. “WHOEVER WINS AI, WINS!”

AI Race Could Lead to ‘Gigantic Disaster’

Guterres was asked about the U.S. president’s views on AI during a Sept. 16 press conference.

“When a number of leaders and workers of the companies that are on the frontier of AI are the first to say that there are risks they still are not entirely able to control, I don’t think we can ignore that,” he said.

“In my opinion, it is essential that the countries that have capacity, and I’m not referring only to the two biggest ones, the countries that have the highest capacity in the frontiers of AI, I think they should establish mechanisms of contact, of exchange of information, and some common guardrails in order to avoid this race to the bottom that could lead one day to a gigantic disaster at the global level.”

White House AI adviser David Sacks said on Sept. 12 that AI companies should regulate themselves and encouraged those with concerns to slow down their own development, stating that they can do so without demanding a “preferred regulatory framework.”

The perceived importance of biorisks and new pandemics fell more than any other risk measured in the survey compared with 2024; both dropped eight places and fell out of the top 10.

The U.N. said in a statement that respondents had “pointed to weak governance and coordination, a lack of political consensus, and eroding trust and accountability as the biggest obstacles to managing risk—alongside poor prioritisation, resistance from the public, politicians or business, and gaps in data.”