On a 12-month basis, headline producer inflation eased to 2.9 percent, higher than the market estimate. Core wholesale inflation also rose to a higher-than-expected 3.6 percent.
Consumer inflation has been softening recently.
Inflation Remains Contained
The SNB said inflation has increased in recent months due to higher energy prices, while price pressures elsewhere in the economy have remained limited.
Additionally, wholesale inflation excluding food, energy, and trade rose just by 0.2 percent.
Wartime Inflation
March’s consumer price index report suggested that underlying inflation was holding steady.
Services inflation also rose to 3.5 percent from 3 percent, while underlying inflation, which excludes volatile energy and food prices, increased to 2.5 percent from 2.2 percent.
Energy shocks feed directly into inflation in ways monetary policy cannot directly fix. What happens when financial markets are running hot, and an energy shock is pushing inflation higher at the same time?
It might depend on how inflation is measured.
With Kevin Warsh taking over from Jerome Powell as chairman of the Federal Reserve, reforms are expected. One of these changes could be how the Fed tracks inflation.
Reading the Inflation Tea Leaves
More consumers anticipate a pickup in inflation over the next 12 months.
The one-year inflation outlook rose to a higher-than-expected 3.8 percent from 3.4 percent in February.
Inflation across the eurozone will hit 3 percent this year, up from 2.1 percent last year, and higher than the European Central Bank’s target of 2 percent. The commission predicts inflation will then fall to 2.3 percent in 2027.
Estimates from the Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcasting Model suggest the annual PCE inflation rate rose to 2.8 percent.
Core PCE inflation is expected to come in at 2.9 percent.
Government bonds from Tokyo to New York City extended losses on May 18 as rising oil prices linked to the Iran war continued to push inflation fears.
Benchmark 10-year U.S.
U.S. inflation slowed in November, with the Consumer Price Index rising 2.7 percent from a year ago—with core inflation also cooling.
A $7 million SNAP benefit scheme was busted in Boston on Thursday.
The headline inflation rate reached 1.9 percent in August, nearly aligning with economists' forecasts that inflation would increase to 2 percent, up from 1.7 percent in July.
But there could be near-term inflation challenges in the next batch of reports.
The Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcasting Model estimates the March annual inflation rate will rise to 2.9 percent, fueled by soaring energy costs.
Canada’s inflation rate had fallen to 2.8 percent in June, after reaching 3.2 percent in May.Core inflation measures, which exclude “volatile” components like food and gasoline, remained stable in July, the agency said.
The current agreement between the Bank of Canada and the federal government sets an inflation target of 2 percent, which is the midpoint of its inflation-control range of 1 percent to 3 percent.
Stabilizing Forces
While financial markets had already anticipated elevated May inflation readings, investors and monetary policymakers are hunting for evidence of inflation stabilizing.
Commentary
Last Tuesday, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes from its December meeting were posted, signaling that at least one additional key interest rate cut is anticipated if inflation cools in the upcoming months.
StatCan said food inflation rose by 4.3 percent in May after rising by 3.5 percent in April, which marked the 16th consecutive month food inflation has “outpaced headline inflation on a year-over-year basis.”
They also create the conditions for more inflation down the line. It could be a year or two but it will eventually come.
This is the danger. The Trump administration needs to put a priority on killing inflation.